Cong overreached itself, to blame for splitting up UPA

Even as the Congress privately laments (and publicly dismisses as inconsequential) the loss of crucial partners in the run-up to the general election, the party itself sowed the seeds of disintegration of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA). The UPA — disparate parties that Sonia Gandhi painstakingly glued together as one unit five years ago — started crumbling when the Congress rejected a ‘national alliance’ model in favour of ‘State-specific’ tie-ups with regional supporters.

Hoping to register their presence with the Congress’ help in areas outside their respective States, regional heavyweights — such as the SP, LJP and the RJD —slammed the door on the Congress in their strongholds.

If the Congress had agreed to the national alliance idea favoured by the regional satraps, it could have retained its allies and with their support even contested a respectable number of seats in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Although the party would have had to trade off a few seats in States like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra, it could have still been in a better position. Congress’ obstinacy to dominate has put the UPA under threat, with even existing partners such as NCP chief Sharad Pawar unhappy with the arrangement and reportedly waiting for the right time to strike.

Another ‘gain’ for the Congress in a national alliance would have been the allies’ acceptance of the party’s nominee as the UPA’s prime ministerial candidate, like it has happened in case of the NDA, where the BJP partners have endorsed LK Advani as their choice. As things stand, not just Pawar but also Mulayam, Lalu and Paswan have expressed their suitability for the post and would not hesitate to indulge in a bitter post-election struggle if they find the situation favourable.

While the Congress can seek consolation in the hope that many of these ‘deserters’ would eventually realign with it after polls since they have no other option, the fact is that their support to form a Congress-led Government will come at a heavy price because they now have greater bargaining strength as a single bloc and could be a permanent nuisance (like the Left was when it supported the Manmohan Singh regime) throughout the Government’s tenure. Moreover, options are not really closed for leaders like Ramvilas Paswan, Mamata Banerjee and M Karunanidhi who have cohabited with the BJP in the recent past.

Even if the SP, LJP and RJD perform below par in their respective regions of influence, the Congress is unlikely to benefit due to two reasons. One, less number of seats for the regional outfits will impact the party’s chances of Government formation (assuming the three extend post-poll support to the Congress), and two, the regional bloc’s electoral losses will not be the Congress’ gain. For instance, the SP’s poor performance will add to the BSP tally in Uttar Pradesh while any LJP-RJD setback will help JD (U)-BJP combine in Bihar.

Observers have been saying that Sharad Pawar is the man to watch in all this political churning. The NCP chief has built an impressive network of friends and admirers cutting across party lines and is equally comfortable with Amar Singh, Prakash Karat and Bal Thackeray. He would not hesitate to dump the Congress if the action furthered his interests.

Besides seeking to enhance his party’s base in and outside Maharashtra, Pawar believes that the Prime Ministership should come to a Maharashtrian like him. Although his party is contesting 22 of the 48 seats in his home State, leaving the rest to the Congress, the NCP has presence in States like Meghalaya and Goa and the party would like to grow further to strengthen Pawar’s claim. As the Congress’ decision to restrict its alliance with the NCP to Maharashtra has dealt a blow to this strategy, Pawar would be exploring other avenues.